Prediction Curve$CURVE ← Back to the curve
The long version

A coin whose reserve is a book of bets on events.

This is the whole mechanism, written out: how the curve prices the token, how the reserve is bought, how a position ends, what happens at graduation, and every way this can go wrong. If a claim is on this page, it is checkable — the chain is the source and this page is a description of it.

01 — THE ONE-PARAGRAPH VERSION

Curve first, book second, book in public.

$CURVE is built to launch on a Solana bonding curve at the $4,000 opening market cap the launch venue fixes for every coin — not a number we chose. There is no presale and no allocation in front of the queue. As the curve trades, a share of the tax that the launch config routes to the project is spent buying binary prediction contracts — positions on whether a real-world event happens. Each contract is worth $1 if it settles right and $0 if it doesn't. Those positions are the reserve. Every one of them is published with the transaction that bought it, so the reserve is a fact you can read rather than a figure you have to trust. None of it exists yet: the curve is not live, and the config published at go-live will be the first thing on the ledger.

Backed means held, not promised. The reserve is a real, on-chain position book. It is not a redemption right, not a floor under the token, and not something anyone can cash out by holding $CURVE.

02 — THE CURVE

Everyone gets the same price for the same block.

A bonding curve is a pricing rule the contract enforces: the price is a function of how much of the supply has been bought. Early buys are cheap and lift the price; sells push it back down. There is no order book to be front-run and no negotiation — the contract quotes, you sign, the price moves for the next person.

Opening market cap$4,000 (the venue's openUsd)
Graduation threshold$25K · $35K · $40K — one is chosen, $35K is the default → DAMM v2
Total supply1,000,000,000 · 6 decimals · fixed, mint authority revoked
Pair assetSOL · USDC · one of 150+ tokenized stocks (chosen at launch)
Trade tax1% / 2% / 3% — 2% is the venue's default, paid in the pair
Where the tax is routedper module, fixed at launch — holders, keep, burn, lotto, predict, and others
Pool fee after graduation1% (the venue's current DAMM v2 default)
Platform launch feenone — the venue charges nothing to launch
Launch modepredict — from the venue's mode menu, set in the launch config

Graduation is a mechanical event, not a promise of a better market. When the curve reaches its threshold, liquidity migrates into a DAMM v2 pool. Trading continues there, with different rules, deeper possible depth, and the same possibility of going down.

Every value above comes from the launch venue's own public endpoints — its economics object, its SDK curve builder, its launch studio — and one mint account read on Solana; the table on the front page links each one. The values are the venue's option set and defaults: what this token uses is fixed in the launch configuration, and the configuration is the authority. Where this document and those endpoints disagree, the endpoints are right.

03 — THE BOOK

What the reserve buys, and how you can read it.

A prediction contract is a token with two sides — YES and NO — on a single stated question. It trades between one cent and ninety-nine cents, and the price is the market's implied probability: a YES at 72¢ means traders are paying 72¢ for a claim that pays $1 if it happens. At resolution, a winning contract pays $1 and a losing one expires worthless. While a market is open, a position can usually be sold back at the current bid instead of being held to the end.

How the reserve is funded

  • The launch allocation. A defined slice of supply is reserved for the book and is spent buying positions, in public, from the first phase onward.
  • The routed tax. The share of trading tax that goes to the project — rather than to holders, burns or the venue's modules — is what feeds the book after launch. The split is fixed at launch and published.
  • Settled proceeds. When a position settles, what it pays returns to the reserve and is redeployed. Nothing is withdrawn to a personal wallet; the book is the balance.

Everything in this list is the intended configuration, and the configuration is fixed and published at launch. For scale, here is the launch venue's own worked example of its default 2% tax preset, in the venue's words: per $1,000 traded → $20.00 tax → $11.52 to holders (paid in the pair) → $4.48 to the platform → $4.00 to Meteora → $0 to the creator. Route the project's share to the book instead, and that share is what buys positions — in public. The numbers are the venue's, published at embercurve.fun/launch.

How the reserve is documented

Every position has three things attached to it: the market it is on, the price it was bought at, and the transaction that bought it. The ledger page lists them in order. The reserve's value is never stated by us as a headline number — it is the sum of what those positions are quoted at, which the venue publishes and the chain records. If a position is not on-chain, it is not in the reserve.

Why binary contracts instead of a bag of tokens? Because a position has a defined endpoint. A contract is worth a dollar or nothing, and the event that decides it is written down before the money moves. There is no valuation story to argue about afterwards.

04 — SETTLEMENT

$1 or $0, decided by rules written before the trade.

When a market closes and the outcome is known, it resolves against the rules published with the market. Nothing in the book is marked up by us, and no position is ever re-labelled after the fact. The four steps a position goes through, every time:

1 · Open

A market opens with two sides and a price on each. The price is the crowd's probability, in cents.

2 · Filled

The reserve buys a side. The fill, the size and the price are public the moment the transaction lands.

3 · Resolved

Trading closes and the event settles the contract at $1 or at $0. A wrong call costs what was paid for it.

4 · Redeployed

Winnings go back into the next position. The ledger updates, and so does the reserve.

Fees charged by the venue on entry, exit or settlement are real costs to the book and are included in what a position costs. They are not hidden, but they are also not zero — a position that wins by less than its round-trip cost was not a good position.

05 — AFTER GRADUATION

The curve ends; the book doesn't.

Once the curve fills, the token trades in a normal liquidity pool and the curve stops being the pricing mechanism. The reserve keeps doing what it was doing: buying positions, settling them, and rolling the proceeds. The tax that fed the book at the start is replaced by whatever the pool charges, and that number lives on-chain where you can read it.

Phase 4 is the part worth waiting for: one page listing every position the reserve has ever taken, what it paid, and what it settled at. Not a chart of the token — a ledger of the book.

06 — THE RISKS

In plain language, because the other kind is useless.

  • You can lose everything you put in. Curve tokens are speculative instruments with no cash flow obligation to holders. Most tokens like this go to zero.
  • The reserve can be wrong, repeatedly. Every position can settle at zero. There is no insurance and no reimbursement, and a bad run shrinks the book.
  • The reserve is not yours. Holding $CURVE gives you no claim on it, no redemption, no share of its proceeds, and no vote over how it is spent.
  • Settlement depends on other people's rules. Markets are run by external venues with their own resolution, delay and dispute processes. We do not control them and cannot overrule a resolution.
  • Liquidity can leave. On a curve and in a pool alike, depth can disappear. A price you can see is not a price you can necessarily trade at.
  • Software fails. Contracts, venues and the app are code written by humans. A bug can cost the reserve or lock it.
  • Rules differ where you live. Participating in token launches or event markets may be restricted or unlawful depending on your jurisdiction. That is your responsibility, not ours.
07 — WHAT WE WON'T DO

Committed to in writing.

  • No price talk. Nothing published by this project will ever say, imply or hint that the token goes up. The book is about events; the token's price is whatever the market does.
  • No redemption, no yield. The reserve never becomes claimable, and there is no staking, no APY and no holder distribution dressed up as one.
  • No quiet changes. If the tax split, the pair asset or the strategy changes, it is announced before it happens and is visible on-chain either way.
  • No borrowing against the book. Nothing is pledged, so a wrong call can't cascade past what it cost.
  • No name-dropping as partnership. We build on public infrastructure. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the teams behind it, and we say so where it counts.
08 — HOW TO CHECK ALL OF IT

The chain is the source. This page is the description.

The tokenmint address published at launch
The launchlaunch transaction linked at go-live
The curvelaunch config = parameters above
The reserveledger page → one tx per position
The settlementson-chain, per market, no claim needed

Before any of that exists, the honest state of this project is: written down, not launched. The curve is not live. There is no mint to buy. When there is, the address appears here and in the bar of the front page — and the first thing worth doing is reading the launch config rather than the headline.